Why now is not the time for Kurdish independence from Iraq

The sensational power displays of the self-proclaimed ‘Islamic State’ (hereafter Daesh), epitomised by the undoing of the legacy of Sykes-Picot at the Iraq-Syria border earlier this summer, have made for sobering viewing and have cast further doubt on the fate of Iraq as a unified entity. Can, or indeed should, the beleaguered state chart a course out of this quagmire in one piece?

The calls for partition

After several weeks of airstrikes against Daesh, it is abundantly clear that, while these expensive sorties may destroy a few armoured vehicles here and a pirated oil well there, the utility of military power for achieving long-term foreign policy aims is inherently limited - a lesson that ought to have been learned by now. Needless to say (and many have already said it) any strategy for longer-term stability must be political.

So what would a political solution look like? Reminiscent of the 2006 ‘Biden Plan’, some observers have called for the official partitioning of Iraq into smaller sovereign entities reflecting the country’s Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish demographics. This is a facile notion. These three groups are not mutually exclusive; there are a great many Sunni Kurds, for example, and historically marriage between Sunni and Shi’a was common. Furthermore, Iraq’s population is constituted by more than just these identity groups, such as the Iraqi Turkmen, Assyrians, Yazidis and Shabaks. Whilst these are all minorities, some very small in number, viewing the country as easily divisible among three ethnic and religious groups is deeply problematic. Furthermore, such an approach ironically offers tacit endorsement of Daesh’s own worldview of Iraq as simply a colonially-fashioned, artificial state which lacks legitimacy.

Another idea that has surfaced recently is to advocate the partial division of the country by supporting Kurdish secession in response to the need for allies on the ground to combat Daesh. In August, Paddy Ashdown called on the UK to act as ‘handmaidens to Kurdish independence’.¹  Similarly, Nick Cohen recently posted in The Observer that the Kurds ought to be rewarded with a state of their own in exchange for the support of the Peshmerga against Daesh.²  At the risk of sounding like a stooge for those who are vehemently anti-Kurdish independence, I disagree. The full or partial breakup of Iraq under present circumstances would simply add to Iraq’s and the region’s woes, rather than alleviate them.

If the Kurds secede under present conditions they will be isolated in the region

It would be highly likely that a fledgling Kurdish state would be overwhelmed with rivalries. It would likely face belligerence from Iraq’s Shi’a majority, as well as an intensified pseudo-Sunni insurgency by the fighters and supporters of Daesh. Added to this the Kurds would doubtless face subversive activity from a number of other Arab states, Iran and Turkey. At this moment in the region’s troubled recent past, an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would be born fighting and it would not necessarily be able to sustain itself – after all, Daesh’s militants alone were able to inflict significant damage upon Kurdish forces and take territory and strategic locations earlier this summer.

A more preferable scenario, it seems, would be a genuine concerted effort by all parties in Iraq to combat Daesh. Furthermore, Kurdish commitment to such a national effort to roll back Daesh’s gains has the potential to lay the foundations for more peaceful and cooperative steps towards a referendum on Kurdish independence in the future. It is therefore encouraging that the Kurdish leadership in early September confirmed that they will postpone plans for a referendum and focus instead on the immediate threat presented by Daesh.³

To be clear, I agree that the Kurdish people ought to have a unified, independent state of their own. Indeed, I am mindful of the German political theorist Hannah Arendt, who so resolutely articulated the absence of human rights and human dignity for those who are left stateless in the contemporary global political structure. But the Kurds have made significant progress towards self-determination since 2003 and this gradual progress ought to continue, for the time being, as part of a unified Iraq in pursuit of stabilisation. In this way, when the time is right for independence, the Kurdish state will not be born so embattled.  

The beginnings of a political solution

The beginning of a political solution for first stemming, and then turning, the tide of violence in Iraq is to be found in presenting a united front to Daesh. To this end, Iraq’s new Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, must live up to the desperate need for a more inclusive politics with which he has entered office. There needs to be immediate engagement with Sunni groups who currently view Daesh as liberators. Such support for the anarcho-Islamist group has in most cases been driven by the deliberate isolation of Sunnis by the previous government in Baghdad, rather than out of any genuine sympathy towards Daesh’s ideology and methods.

This type of engagement will not be easy as it will involve a dialogue and rapprochement among all sides, but this is crucial if the corruption of the muhasasa system is to be genuinely confronted. If the government can look beyond the past and instead towards their mutual interests, then they should specifically reach out to former Ba’athists in the General Military Council of Iraqi Revolutionaries and the Naqshbandi Army, for example, who could quite easily be persuaded to fight against Daesh.

I believe that Daesh must be defeated militarily. But the best way for this to happen is for all parties in Iraq to unite against them, thereby also laying the foundations for a more representative, inclusive Iraqi politics. In this regard, Prime Minister al-Abadi would do well to prioritise the passing of, and genuine commitment to, legislation to more fairly distribute the country’s oil revenues and give the Sunnis a real stake in a united Iraq. Similarly, a speedy conclusion to the ongoing oil and budget dispute between Baghdad and Erbil is a prerequisite for Kurdish commitment to a concerted counteroffensive against Daesh.

¹  N Watt, M Chulov and J Borger, Middle East borders are being redrawn in religious war, says Paddy Ashdown (2014) The Guardian.
²  N Cohen, The stateless Kurds are right about radical Islam, but the west is too meek to stop Isis’s fascism (2014) The Observer.
³  J Parkinson and N Entous, How Kurds Came to Play Key Role in U.S Plans to Combat Islamic State (2014) The Wall Street Journal.