Measuring the Impact of Refugee Economic Empowerment

In most host states in the global south, there are restrictions on refugees’ ability to enter the workforce. Refugees predominantly rely on savings and assistance from humanitarian agencies. As these resources become scarce, more refugees seek work in the informal sector, where they are exposed to exploitation, unsafe working conditions and other risks. Growth of the informal sector also has negative implications on the economic development of the host state, by undermining the tax base, distorting spending and compromising the rule of law. This situation feeds the perception that refugees are inherently burdensome for the host state.

This research will measure and assess the actual impact of refugee labour market integration (including from a gender perspective), according to the following parameters:

• Impact on principal macroeconomic indicators including unemployment, poverty, median income levels, real wages, inequality, productivity rates, gender participation rates, human development index (HDI), real GDP growth rates, and investment levels.
• Impact on donor policies (aid volume) and aid dependency. A particular area of inquiry is whether aid continues to be extended in its traditional form, or if more strategic approaches are adopted. Moreover, the research will seek to draw conclusions regarding the cost effectiveness of effective labour market integration vis-à-vis traditional humanitarian response strategies.
• Impact on social cohesion, both on the part of host community-refugee social relations and from the perspective of Jordanians in general, through a comparison of social tensions and pressures before and after labour integration policies.
• Impact on refugee welfare in terms of economic and social well-being; parameters will include living standards, vulnerability, wages, and access to health services and education.

The second objective of the research is to compare the actual impact of labour market integration with projections on what would be the impact of alternative policy paths (including additional formalisation in conjunction with targeted investment in key sectors). From this comparison, policy recommendations tailored to different stakeholder groups (host states, donors, citizens, and refugees) will be developed.

Activities

Report 1: The impact of refugee labour integration on the host state economy

• Quantitative and qualitative findings on the actual economic impact of refugee labour market integration, including how formal labour market participation impacts macroeconomic indicators and economic growth patterns?
• Comparative cost-benefit analysis on the adopted policy vis-à-vis alternate choices focusing on macroeconomic indicators.
• Gender analysis in terms of labour market sectorial breakdowns and optimal use of investment opportunities to harness female labour market participation.
• Assessment of the optimal level of integration of refugee labour from a sectorial perspective.
• Analysis of the level of investment required to meet job creation targets.
• Assessment of the costs and benefits of refugee hosting, while distinguishing between pre-existing challenges and inefficiencies that have been exacerbated by refugee hosting.

Report 2: The impact of Syrian labour integration on refugees

• Assessment of the impact of labour market integration on refugees from economic and social welfare perspectives drawing on indicators relating to income, social cohesion and human development.
• Social cohesion outcomes of alternative policy choices.

Report 3: Policy findings for donors and humanitarian agencies

• Assessment of the effectiveness of aid packages extended to host states in advancing resilience and refugee livelihoods.
• Cost benefit analysis of alternate policy options vis-à-vis traditional protection-livelihoods approaches.
• Cost effectiveness analysis of advancing labour market access vis-à-vis humanitarian assistance.
• Policy recommendations on the adoption and advancement of livelihoods and labour market integration strategies in future refugee contexts.

• Nine Recommendations to Bolster the Jordan Compact
• Syrian Refugee Labour Integration Policy in Jordan
• Jordan’s Recent Economic Performance: Implications for Future Growth, Investment, Refugee Policy and Refugees