Upholding Syrian refugees’ agency is key for long-term stability

The fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, has marked a new chapter in Syria’s history with hopes of newfound freedom and liberation, 14 years after the revolution. For millions of Syrians displaced abroad, this new era has prompted a reckoning—whether now is the right time to return home. The voluntary return of Syrian refugees is undermined by international aid cuts and host-country asylum policies. The country remains fragile in this interim period, and an increased number of returnees would pose additional destabilising pressures. Therefore, the question of refugees’ return to Syria is a key consideration for ensuring Syria’s long-term stability.

Uncertainty for Syrian refugees

Millions of Syrians across the globe remain under refugee status, grappling with the uncertainty of their future in the wake of Assad’s fall. In the first five months since the leadership change, approximately 62,500 registered refugees in Jordan have returned to Syria. This is only a small percentage of the 730,000 refugees registered with UNHCR in Jordan, most of whom are predominantly from Syria.

The majority remain hesitant to return as they await more signs of stability. However, many European countries and the United Kingdom have halted or paused asylum decisions for Syrians since the fall of Assad, which may force those whose applications are on hold to return to Syria. Syrian refugees residing in neighbouring host countries also face significant challenges due to a decline in international aid, as is the case in Jordan in recent years. Further aid cuts, coupled with difficult economic conditions experienced by refugees, hinder their ability to make a voluntary decision to return. In this scenario, returning to an uncertain future in Syria may be the only path forward.

Currently, most Syrian refugees in Jordan who wish to return to Syria “risk a one-way trip home”, as it is unlikely that refugees returning to Syria will be able to re-enter Jordan in the near future. This policy adds greater risk for return, especially since Syria’s future remains unclear.

A safe return is not yet guaranteed

After over a decade of displacement, refugee return would require Syria’s new government and the whole of society to ensure the provision of basic services, employment opportunities, and reintegration efforts to rebuild their lives. Considering that Syria’s infrastructure, economy, and security remain fragile, the hasty return of large waves of Syrians may pose additional pressure on the Syrian government in facilitating services and security for its citizens. The International Organisation on Migration has specifically warned against the large-scale return of Syrians from host countries until the situation is more stable, as “Syria’s infrastructure is not equipped to handle such an influx of people”.

From a security perspective, the new Syrian leadership have taken steps to unify factions, but foreign intervention, internal divisions, and unresolved grievances remain a threat to Syria’s future stability. For one, Israel’s expansion of its occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights and its various bombing campaigns undermine Syria’s sovereignty and exemplify the prioritisation of foreign interests over reconstruction goals, adding to the risk of conflict recidivism. Additionally, the restoration of law and order is a prerequisite for refugees’ safe return home to ensure access to justice and minimise vulnerability to conflict. However, surges in violent clashes targeting minority groups – first the Alawites, then the Druze – are a testament to Syria’s long road ahead to overcome sectarian fragmentation and bolster social cohesion. Resolving these issues is key to minimising the likelihood of instability over the medium term to ensure a safe environment for refugees to return.

Moving forward

The potential for conflict recidivism in Syria is not in the interest of any actor involved, making it imperative that Syrian refugees continue receiving the needed support to prioritise the region’s long-term stability. It is in the collective interest of the international community -and particularly countries in the Euro-Mediterranean region- to remain welcoming to Syrian refugees and support Syria’s reconstruction efforts. Host countries must ensure that refugees uphold their agency and the freedom to choose when to return. Achieving this requires sustained funding for refugee programs, the fulfilment of refugees’ basic needs in their host countries, and the resumption of processing for pending asylum applications. These measures will allow Syria to focus on rebuilding, laying the groundwork for long-term stability, sustainable peace, and the eventual safe return of Syrians to their homeland.

Read the article on Jordan Times: https://jordantimes.com/opinion/salma-nasser/upholding-syrian-refugees-agency-is-key-for-long-term-stability

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