The relationships between food, water and displacement

It was Benjamin Franklin who said that when the well is dry, we know the worth of water. The well has been dry in West Asia — North Africa (WANA) for quite some time, and the people living here know the worth of water painfully well. Clean water and food are not given goods for millions of people in the world and particularly in this region. This water and food insecurity drives conflict and causes displacement, which then further exacerbate both water and food insecurity interrelatedly. Where issues pertaining to water and food converge, displacement occurs and fuels tensions that can potentially lead to conflict. Syria is one example, where the internal displacement of some 250 000 Syrians in 2007-2008 due to drought was a crucial but also overlooked factor in what can now only be described as a Syrian tragedy, the exodus of which is yet to play out. If we want to avoid a Lebanese, Egyptian, or Jordanian tragedy of the same calibre, we need to better understand the mechanisms of this water — food —displacement — conflict nexus.

Just how bad is the food situation in WANA? According to the World Food Programme (WFP), almost 10 million are food insecure in Syria, and in Iraq, that number is 4.4 million. Indeed, both Iraq and Syria are plagued by conflict, but that is not necessarily the primary source of insecurity. Egypt saw an increase in the number of food insecure persons from 11.2 to 13.7 million between 2009 and 2011. Today, this number is most likely even higher, since the primary cause of food insecurity in Egypt is poverty and food prices, both of which have increased since 2011. Similar situations can be recorded in for instance Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon.
So what about water? The World Health Organization (WHO) uses 1000 m³ water per person per year as a benchmark to measure water scarcity. Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza have 100 m³ and Israel has 300 m³, while Sweden, for instance, has access to 20 000 m³ of water per person per year. The irony of this is that on average, Ramallah receives more rainfall than Stockholm. And renewable water resources have already been exhausted in five of the seven countries in the Arab Peninsula. All this really puts the region’s water scarcity and people’s water (in) security in perspective.

Needless to say, hunger and thirst are all too common features of this part of the world. Imagine Benjamin Franklin spending a few days here looking for wells. He would quickly learn the worth of water.

Subsequently, with approximately 85 percent of water use in the region attributed to the agricultural sector, the relationship between food and water is obvious. Yet despite this huge investment of water in farming, most WANA states are net food importers, relying on international markets to feed their populations. As a region of predominantly food importers, WANA is very sensitive to international food price spikes. Factor in high levels of poverty, it is also vulnerable to even minor disturbances on the international food market. The point is that water insecurity and food insecurity cannot be treated as separate issues; they are an intersection of a broader nexus and policy — makers need a comprehensive and integrated approach to deal with them.

Water is crucial to grow food, and virtual water is embedded in food. When water and food are scarce, people are forced to move. Displacement spawns social tensions that can lead to conflict. Armed conflict drives food insecurity insofar as it disrupts production and distribution of food, but can also cause destruction of food producing facilities and assets. In addition, displacement, due to conflict or simply water insecurity, drives food insecurity further when farmers are forced to leave their crops and livestock unattended. And then there is also the dimension of increases in the demand for food and water where a displaced community becomes a new significant contingent.

Research shows that access to food measured in income correlates to the initiation of conflict. Social unrest because of food insecurity has historically been relatively common in WANA. Egypt is infamous in this regard with its notorious bread riots of 1977, but similar episodes of popular unrest due to food prices have played out in the history of Morocco, Lebanon and Jordan. In fact, recent uprisings in the region  — not to mention the so-called Arab Spring — can all be at least indirectly linked to food insecurity through their socio-economic causes.

Against this background, host countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey face an increased risk of social unrest. A large Syrian refugee contingent has led to increased demand for food. Subsequently, the host country’s low income population loses income due to an increased availability of cheap labour. Taken together, this spurs additional food insecurity and the risk of conflict is amplified.

Displacement can also further exacerbate water insecurity. The large Za’atari refugee camp in Jordan that has become home for many Syrians, has led to speculation around pollution of the surface water in the area surrounding the camp. And then there is of course the increased water consumption that a new population of displaced persons require.

Clearly food and water are crucial drivers of displacement and can lead to conflict. Leonardo da Vinci once said that water is the driving force in nature. And it is kind of obvious; no blue also means no green, which elucidates the water-food intersection. Water moves people when there is too little of it and when there is too much of it. Some people fight over it, and civilizations have settled next to it. WANA has all of these categories; within the next two decades 45 million Iranians face forced migration due to draught, and paradoxically, in the same time span the same number of Egyptians face forced migration due to flooding of the Nile Delta. But all of them need water, which is what unites them.

Consequently, we must craft an inclusive agenda for sustainable access to clean water and food for everyone, by acknowledging the crucial role of water in our human environment. It is equally important to recognise the interconnected relationship of food and water. Human dignity entails the possibility to drink when thirsty and eat when hungry; it is time to tackle the water-food-displacement-conflict nexus and make sure every human is water and food secure.